DLR Scenario Lab: Experience Interactive Scenario Analysis with VECTOR21
In our Scenario Lab the DLR Institute of Vehicle Concepts offers workshops for interactive scenario development with a focus on future vehicle technologies. In collaboration with DLR experts, you can develop, simulate and assess future vehicle technology scenarios with vehicle market simulations implemented in VECTOR21. Inside our lab we realized an environment amplifying your creativity. Experience future mobility scenarios and the evolution of new concepts for individual mobility.
With our powerful tool VECTOR21 and our bottom-up vehicle market models we conduct market analysis and scenario development in real-time. As soon as the creativity of teams is freed of time-consuming hand-offs, reworks and delays, innovative solutions are able to prosper. An intuitive presentation of data and the simulation in real-time avoids the common creativity block. Ideas generate new ideas and creativity multiplies.
VECTOR21 Application: Vehicle Market Scenario Analysis
The Model separates the simulated market in several segments. Each segment holding a certain market-share is represented by a customer agent with certain customer characteristics. On the supply side the offered vehicles are composed of an adjustable number of vehicle parts. Year by year the discrete choice algorithm calculates the customer‘s purchase decision of every agent:
A customer agent is modelled for every customer segment. The granularity of the customer‘s characteristics are adjustable as well as their geographical distribution.
Utility-based purchase decision
The purchase decision of every agent is simulated by an algorithm comparing the customer‘s needs to the characteristics of the vehicles offered. Every agent decides for an offer maximizing its utility function.
The offered vehicles incorporate detailed vehicle technologies
and costs. The granularity of the vehicle modeling as well as
pre-defined technology development steps are adjustable to
the personal needs.
The VECTOR21 simulation delivers a large number of results supporting your strategic decisions on vehicle markets. The most important results are:
of powertrains and components in different socio-demographic and geographical segments
of vehicles and components over time
Diffusion of new technologies
with feedback loops on costs of vehicle components
Development of energy consumption of vehicle stock
Automatic component sizing
An optimizing algorithm determines the optimal size of components (e.g. batteries and efficiency technologies) according to the customer’s needs
Emissions & CO2 limits
CO2 emissions of manufactured vehicles and the adherence to CO2 limits
In addition to the customer and technology modeling several environmental aspects are included in the software:
Regional distribution of infrastructure demand and availability
Country-specific taxes, subsidies and regulations
Strategies to react on CO2 regulation and production enlargement limits
Modelling costs from source to end user
Ongoing Research and Future Developments
The DLR Institute of Vehicle Concepts is conducting research in several areas affecting vehicle markets. Possible areas of VECTOR21 extensions are:
Chinese vehicle market
New business models for private transport
Carsharing, autonomous taxis, mobility as a service
Material flows and lifecycle analysis
Truck market analysis