Scenario analysis software VECTOR21 – a bottom-up vehicle market model

VECTOR21 separates the simulated market in several segments. Each segment holding a certain market-share is represented by a customer agent with certain customer characteristics. On the supply side the offered vehicles are composed of an adjustable number of vehicle parts. Year by year the discrete choice algorithm calculates the customer‘s purchase decision of every agent:


Customer side
A customer agent is modelled for every customer segment. The granularity of the customer‘s characteristics are adjustable as well as their geographical distribution.


Utility-based purchase decision
The purchase decision of every agent is simulated by an algorithm comparing the customer‘s needs to the characteristics of the vehicles offered. Every agent decides for an offer maximizing its utility function.

carSupply side
The offered vehicles incorporate detailed vehicle technologies
and costs. The granularity of the vehicle modeling as well as
pre-defined technology development steps are adjustable to
the personal needs.

Key Results

The VECTOR21 simulation delivers a large number of results supporting your strategic decisions on vehicle markets. The most important results are:

pie chart

of powertrains and components in different socio-demographic and geographical segments

price development

Cost development
of vehicles and components over time


Diffusion of new technologies
with feedback loops on costs of vehicle components


Energy consumption
Development of energy consumption of vehicle stock


 Automatic component sizing
An optimizing algorithm determines the optimal size of components (e.g. batteries and efficiency technologies) according to the customer’s needs


Emissions & CO2 limits
CO2 emissions of manufactured vehicles and the adherence to CO2 limits

External Influences

In addition to the customer and technology modeling several environmental aspects are included in the software:


Infrastructure modelling
Regional distribution of infrastructure demand and availability


Political influences
Country-specific taxes, subsidies and regulations


Supply-side framework
Strategies to react on CO2 regulation and production enlargement limits


Energy costs
Modelling costs from source to end user

Ongoing Research and Future Developments

The DLR Institute of Vehicle Concepts is conducting research in several areas affecting vehicle markets. Possible areas of VECTOR21 extensions are:

chinese house

Chinese vehicle market

car price

New business models for private transport
Carsharing, autonomous taxis, mobility as a service

social networks

Social media influence
Car purchase predictions using data from social media

life cycle

Material flows and lifecycle analysis


Truck market analysis

neural nets

Neural nets
for analyzing big data on car purchases